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SGX Nifty 23rd May 2016
Nifty Share Price / Nifty Chart continues showing us classic lower top and lower bottom formation and whenever such formations occur Nifty always has moved lower. Most technical analyst / technical studies will now start showing breakdown signals but we have always maintained that when we use power of astro cycles, Gann wave, elliot wave, major time cycles and our own unique system of sentiment indicator systems we have always made money and predicted the turn in trend well before the move actually starts. As we have been saying that most of these studies are trailing indicator based systems and it does not show that a turn is likely in advance rather it only shows you a turn once the damage in price has been done. Anyways we always keep guiding as per what we see and we frankly write what we see, my Guru (Nifty) has taught me that over the years. The important point that Nifty is telling us for now is that upside is restricted and downsides are open and once again we are clearly saying that pullbacks will come and go. This will not be a one side falling market but on the rise whenever we do get one the trade for the next few months is to be short. From a tactical stand point whenever we see a major pullback we may just get out of Nifty Futures short selling positions and then reenter Nifty Futures shorts on the higher side but the point that we have been trying to communicate is that one should not be long from here on. SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures continues its downward movement.
As per our Indian Stock Market analysis we must keep in mind that even positive news flow like good monsoon, some bills being passed in parliament or even may be GST bill being passed will act as short term positive triggers and sure Nifty will rally on the back of that news flow whenever we do get those kind of positive news but the larger picture needs to be kept in mind that earnings have not picked up, Indian exports have been contracting for the past 16 months in a row, last month imports also started falling and as of right now we do not see any signs of the Indina economy picking up further to all these problems as we have been saying and predicting that as per our view Nifty has a ceiling at around 8400 spot Nifty levels (please do not get me wrong. I am not suggesting that 8400 might come even for one minute. I am just taking a simple earnings parameter and calculating the top area for the Nifty). To have a deeper understanding of what we are predicting one will at least have to first take a closer look at the Global picture and take all factors into consideration. FED is ready to hike rates if the data permits and whenever they do get the data to do the rate hike keep in mind that FII money will surely move out of India. They have been holding on patiently for sometime now but once the second round of rate hike does come in that will signal a global risk off trade to my mind and once that Global risk off does begin the bitter realization that comes in that look India is not really doing all that good and all the talk about the bright spot in Global economy will loose steam as Global liquidity starts going back to the developed markets. Hence when we take a look at the entire picture sure it does have many moving parts but as per our analysis when we take a look at overall wave counts, astro cycles, gann wave cycles it becomes more and more clear that the real money is to be made on the short side and not on the long side from now on. Reiterate pullbacks will come from time to time but during those pullbacks trader or investor must not buy rather look to book out of long trades and better still short sell Nifty Futures.
Astro cycles for this week. Mercury goes direct on 22nd May 2016 and as per our time cycle calculations we could see heightened volatility for the next 2-3 trading days till Wednesday please keep that in mind. Nifty Future Tips / Nifty Prediction given to our clients remains the same. We are sellers on rise and until we do not see any major pullback we will continue to hold on to our short selling positions and keep adding more shorts on any rise but at appropriate points or low risk entry points. (if you are trading only on the basis of this post then kindly use appropriate risk management strategy and trade. Please do not do any blind trades as if you get trapped in wrong positions it will not be easy for you to get out of that)
Use all dips to buy and hold MSL, Bajaj Hindustan, Eid Parry, Ugar Sugar, Tata Coffee, Renuka sugar. All these stocks will do very well in the coming time. (Please note these are long term picks and these are not short term trading idea’s. The min holding period in these stocks will be 18-24 months)
Good Trading To You!
Chat transcript for today.
[09:01, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: GM
[09:01, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told
[09:37, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told
[09:37, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Wait for msg to sell more
[10:40, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: If anything to be done I will update
[10:40, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Usdinr hold 1 part long till next update
[10:40, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Usdinr tgt 68.10
[13:29, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: hold position’s as told
[13:29, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: if anything has to be done i will update
[13:30, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: no volumes Nifty stuck in sideways move
[14:11, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told
[14:25, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 1 Part Short. Hold Positions as told till next update
[14:25, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Usdinr hold 1 part long till next update
[14:25, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Accumulate Renuka sugar @ cmp
[14:55, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 1 Part Short. Hold Positions as told till next update
[14:55, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: if any fresh trade then we will update
[14:55, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: strictly follow msg and trade
[15:12, 20/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: hold positions as told