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SGX Nifty Live
SGX Nifty 25th Feb 2016
SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures had another day in the red by 90 points at 7018 spot Nifty levels mentioned. Let us look at the last few days first and see what has transpired. Around starting of the month we were expecting a breach of 7241-7300 and since Rahu (North Node) was changing house at that time we were expecting a deceptive move whereby all trading longs would be forced out and at that juncture we were very clear that Rahu will first force everyone to get out of longs and then get into short positions and further change the overall sentiment to extreme negative . Now the only difference between what we were expecting or rather were predicting and the reality was that we were expecting a bottom around 7000-7050 and the actual bottom came in at 6850. From 12th Feb 2016 we were waiting for bottom formation confirmation in terms of the previous wave top to be retraced in faster time so Nifty after making a bottom at around 6850 went on to make a high of 7204 on 16th Feb 2016 and then Nifty again fell all the way back to 6960 on 17th Feb 2016. Now the move from 7204-6960 took 8 hours on the downside and was retraced in faster time which means that Nifty moved from 6960 above 7204 in 6 hours so we have a bottom confirmation in place. Now the current move which started from 7252 has taken over 16 hours and yet it has not yet broken 6960 the previous wave bottom which was retraced in 6 hours which by principle of wave means that a trend change has been confirmed and hence as per wave principle we clearly mentioned that we do not see downside now. Hence we once again reiterate our view on the basis of wave principle that we do not see direct downside from here which means we do not see below 6900 spot Nifty directly from here. Now let us understand the targets on the upside we are projecting as 8800-9000 (but today lets play devils advocate so lets talk actually bearish possibilities) assuming for 1 second that the upside wave has to fail then even in that case Nifty will have to go above 7552 and then fail the entire structure so in that scenario we will see Nifty holding 6790 and then moving above 7552 and then falling back to 5851-6300 (which will be the end of this bearish cycle) but the reality is that if the wave has to fail on the upside there had to be impulse in this on going move and that clearly is missing (please understand guys I have been wrong for the past 200 points so please take our analysis today and now onwards with a pich of salt, If i were to precisely call each and every top and bottom well in advance would I have written this ? Most probably still I would have since I feel that the larger cause is that we must share our knowledge but still I dont think we would put free updates on a day to day basis )
Anyways lets get back to the point. Bottom line is as per all our studies combined we first see 7552 assuming the wave on the upside will fail and then downside move towards 5851-6300 (please note assuming that the wave will fail on the upside at this juncture we do not see a wave failure but even if the upper side move has to fail still we will hold 6790 and see above 7552 so that will take care of the existing long positions that most people have taken on the basis of our post)
The sentiment today is a great indicator of what is going on in the Indian stock market. Nobody wants to buy. Everyone wants to be on cash and eh same was inverse at 9000 and even recently at 7500 and even 7950 so at higher prices all Janta wanted buy and were so highly convinced of 300-500 points higher at that juncture and now the same people and brokers and analyst are totally clear that 6500 is coming. The talk is very clear that nothing will come in the budget and hence Nifty will move to 6500. Once again we are saying this when the sentiment is totally one sided the markets will never oblige (it never has in the history of my trading career and I am very clear that history repeats itself and that future is nothing but a repetition of the past) so as per my analysis we are totally clear that we do not see the shorts making money beyond 6900 spot Nifty at best and there will be a short covering rally starting anytime as the entire Janta is short today.
Nifty spot support is at 6900-6950 for tomorrow. Buy MSL, Kesoram, Bajaj Hind, Renuka Sugar, EID Parry, NMDC on dips.
Good Trading To You!