SGX Nifty 26th July 2016

SGX Nifty

LTP  8,576.00   -128.00   -1.49% High 8,710.00 Low 8,546.50

SGX Nifty

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SGX Nifty 26th July 2016

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS MY OVERALL VIEW ON THE NIFTY AND THAT DOES NOT MEAN PRECISE ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THIS POST.  IF YOU ARE TRADING ONLY ON THE BASIS OF THIS POST PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE RISK MANAGEMENT AND THEN ONLY TRADE. PLEASE DO NOT OVER TRADE.

SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures today continued the topping process and in turn completed one of the scenario that we had updated our clients around 8250 area. Now we have done that criteria and we are about to resume the bear market that started on 4th March 2015.   On the portfolio front we are now only long in MSL, Tata Coffee, Ugar Sugar, Bajaj Hindustan, Renuka sugar and EID Parry besides this we are not recommending holding any longs for now  . We see that we will get significantly lower prices to buy all high quality stocks in a few months time from now. Ugar sugar has done exceptionally well and has given over 200% return in just a matter of few months since we initiated our buy call at 23.

As we said that we had misjudged the last part of this move and hence we were into shorts early we did tell our clients what to do and how to manage their respective positions. As per our analysis is concerned we are clear that the only mistake in our counts we have done is the last leg of the rally.  Our larger counts are pointing to a massive collapse in all risk on assets.  There are too many systems showing us that in coming days a massive fall will come taking Nifty to unimaginable levels (please remember this statement the downside levels as per our counts are not even thinkable for anyone today).  We were the only ones talking bullish when Nifty was at 7000 and now we are the only ones talking bearish. We did make some serious mistake in the last leg from 8000 levels but we did make good money from 7000 to 7900 in our longs.

Earnings season till now have been filled with below than estimate numbers and we are clear that in turn is pushing valuations even higher.  If we look at the market from a trailing or a fwd system we see that no one in the market has ever made money investing at such hefty valuations and we do not think that this time also anyone will make any money by buying at such hefty valuations.

Good Trading To You!