SGX Nifty 27th May 2016

SGX Nifty

LTP  8,576.00   -128.00   -1.49% High 8,710.00 Low 8,546.50

SGX Nifty

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SGX Nifty 27th May 2016

SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures today continued rallying and made fresh highs for 2016 and closed at highest levels since Nov 2015. Clients and regular readers of this website may recall that when Nifty was at 7000 levels and at that point in time we were recommending buying we were in absolute minority and when Nifty was at 7000 levels we had clearly predicted will make a top around the 8000 levels give or take a few hundred points. Now also when Nifty was at 7800 we predicted that more or less the area around 8000 will become the top for this move and we stick to our view. We do not see any major changes in structure since Nifty Futures time cycle has lapsed, the current move that is coming would have changed the structure 7-8 weeks back. There is no major significance of the move in overall structure for now and we once again reiterate that these are prices to sell and not prices to buy.  From a pure  trading point of view we have managed to push our overall costing to around 8180 for this current shorts and we once again reiterate that these positions we are holding are for the next 2-3 months and not for the next week (If you are only trading on the basis of this post please use appropriate risk management and then only trade). By using trade management systems we will keep pushing our net cost higher but overall view is remains that these are not prices to buy.

As per our Nifty Futures Tips / Nifty Prediction our overall Nifty view remains the same. Use rise like the one we have right now to exit long positions. From a investors point of view we do not see any logic to buy at almost 23 times P/E and from a traders point we do not see any sense in buying from these prices after a low of 6825 on 29th Feb 2016 keep in mind that Nifty has almost rallied 1275 points and as per our analysis upsides are capped. All the so called positive news of good monsoon, some bills being passed in the parliament are in the price and we do not see any major changes in the economy. Please keep in mind that earnings have not picked up and valuations are very steep further our historical back testing shows that no one in the history of investing has made money buying at such hefty valuations.

Good Trading To You!

Chat Transcript given below

[09:02, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Gm
[09:03, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Short & Nifty June Fut 2 Parts Shorts. Hold Till Next Update
[09:17, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Wait for msg to sell more
[10:02, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Wait for msg to sell more
[12:14, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Short & Nifty June Fut 2 Parts Shorts. Hold Till Next Update
[12:49, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional trade update Nifty sell 1 part 7800 June call at cmp
[12:49, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Confirmation 7800 June call 1 part sold
[12:49, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Total 4 parts now
[12:53, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Pl strictly follow msg and trade pl do not do any interpretation trades
[13:01, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told
[13:02, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional trade active now
[13:02, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: 4 parts
[13:03, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Usdinr hold 1 part long as told
[13:51, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told
[13:52, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Short & Nifty June Fut 2 Parts Shorts, Nifty June 7800 Call 1 Part Short. Hold Till Next Update
[14:07, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Short & Nifty June Fut 2 Parts Shorts, Nifty June 7800 Call 1 Part Short. Hold Till Next Update
[14:11, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Pullback that we were anticipating from lower side is almost coming to a end. please keep in mind that minor variations are possible but overall we do not see these prices sustaining and we see massive downside move from here on. Since we had seen this pullback that was the reason we were booking profits in our shorts and on rise we have reentered those same positions. As of now our cost for this trade itself is over 8180 so there is no issues w r to m to m also. Kindly strictly follow msg and trade and please do not do any interpretation trades
[14:12, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: 8000+ has no significance to us. Just follow msg and trade as told. as of right now hold 4 parts shorts and please avoid any kind of longs
[14:15, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: you must not have exposure to Indian equities on the long side
[14:16, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Trailing Valuation alert crossed 22.52
[14:22, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Short & Nifty June Fut 2 Parts Shorts, Nifty June 7800 Call 1 Part Short. Hold Till Next Update
[15:11, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Shanti sea hold positions
[15:11, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Relax and hold
[15:17, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Short & Nifty June Fut 2 Parts Shorts, Nifty June 7800 Call 1 Part Short. Hold Till Next Update
[15:18, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told
[15:23, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Shanti sea hold positions
[15:23, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: If anything to be done I will update
[15:24, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Pullback is almost done and  more or less this will be top for the reminder of this year minor variations possible
[15:26, 26/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Bull move that started in Feb  now ending which means resumption of down cycle