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SGX Nifty Live
SGX Nifty 29th Feb 2016
SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures Minor Trend is oversold. SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures Major Trend is bullish / up. Nifty spot today once again confirmed a triangle formation as per our understanding of the wave counts. As per our Indian Stock Market analysis / tips / Nifty Prediction we do not see downside beyond 6790 spot Nifty and as said we are clear that unless there are four trading closes below 6790 our view for 8250 and then 8800-9000 remains absolutely intact. We once again reiterate that Buy and Hold MSL, Bajaj Hind, Renuka Sugar, NMDC (keep a watch on NMDC as international Iron ore prices have started to move up so expect a upward revision in Iron Ore price anytime), EID Parry, Tata Coffee, Kesoram Industries as we see a good time cycle support in these stocks. The current pullback or correction in the Indian Stock Market has given good opportunity to enter these stocks and all of them are offering good value to the investor. We are especially bullish on the agricultural commodities stocks as we see a bullish cycle very supportive to agricultural commodities. We also see good time ahead for Cotton and Wheat. Hence as per our view now is the best time to buy and hold positional trading longs and short term investment can also be done at current levels with a target of 8800-9000. For short term trading one can buy cairn India on dips for target of 145 and IDBI Bank on dips with target of 75. Use all dips to buy and hold. Once again we are clearly saying that the current move on the upside will only create froth formation and it will only end up expanding valuations so please understand we do not expect any major corporate earnings to change nor do we expect Indian Economy to do very well from now on. It will just be a “Bina kaaraan Tezi cycle” which will force Janta into extreme bullishness and everyone on the street will start talking about 10500, 12500 but we do not see that happening now.
As far as the budget 2016 goes we do not see any increase in long term capital gain tax or any change in rules for the same. We are expecting an increase in tax slabs and that will help the broader economy in terms of more money to spend. The most important part is that direct FDI into construction projects by which we see a good boost to the Infra segment from this. Also we see a positive in terms of the Public Sector Banking recap we are expecting a higher number for the recap and also there will be some announcement in terms of reducing Govt stakes in bank stocks and that will also be positive in terms of higher accountability for public sector banks. Service Tax hike is expected to align with oncoming GST rate. Overall we expect a positive budget and also fiscal deficit will be in line with expectations.
Let’s look at the overall larger picture. Global Stock Markets in the past few days have been confirming breakout one by one and Indian Stock Markets at the same time have been underperforming the Global benchmark indices. What effectively Nifty has done is created a cushion on the downside since already the under performance has been by almost 4 percent hence we can conclude that the negative news if any has been factored in the prices and we do not see the underperformance continuing. Since Global Stock Markets will keep supporting and moving higher we see a upward pull and reduction in downside pressure if any. This simply means that the price has already discounted the bad news if any, however it has not factored in any of the positive news flow which will come out from the budget. If we just take a simple
Sentiment indicators are clearly showing us that the entire Indian Stock Markets participants are now in total mandi / bearishness. As we have clearly mentioned many times that around the end of a wave on the downside or on the upside sentiment and view becomes lopsided and that is very clearly evident the way most traders are taking short selling positions (Just recount the same situation was at 9000, no one was willing to sell or even book profits everyone was talking about 10500 and no one was bothered about NPA or any other problem and just look at the situation today it is exactly the opposite). As of now all of the traders are talking about 6500 or 6300 but no one is talking about 7200. Regular readers and clients of this website will recall that we had clearly mentioned around the first week of Feb that first Rahu (North Node) will force people out of long positions after forcing people out of longs he will force them into massive short positions and then only will a massive bullish cycle start. As of today if we look at the scenario right now, it is exactly what we were expecting in terms of sentiment and broader stock market participants positions so astro cycle has forced Janta into shorts and now until first they get out of shorts and then start yelling 10500 till that point in time we can safely be on the buying side.
Volume is another important parameter that we track very closely and if we look at the overall picture, volumes on the downside (means when the falls are taking place in the past 10 days volumes have been reducing) while volumes on the upside on all upmoves are increasing. This simple yet ultra-powerful method shows accumulation signs and the smart money trade based on volume analysis is clearly seen buying. In addition to volume, if we look at the speed of up move to speed of decline. Retracements are clearly taking place faster on the upside which again is showing us that smart money is buying. Let’s take a case in point the wave top made on 16th Feb 2016 was at 7200 approximately and the move from 7200 to 6960 took 8 hours while the retracement from 6960 above 7200 took just 6 hours means a faster retracement took place confirming the bottom is in place. Now assuming the calculation is wrong for 1 second then the move from 7252 (high made on 22nd Feb 2016) has still not broken below the previous wave bottom which is 6960 (it has already consumed over 24 hours and yet it has not broken the previous wave bottom) means that this is a corrective wave and we are on the right track. Now assuming it breaks 6960 the move still will not have any significance as both volumes and speed is lower than the previous move (retracement has taken over 4 times the time and net volumes have declined on the down move by over 60 percent) This itself shows that the Indian Stock markets will move sharply higher in the days to come. If we further go to the internals of today’s move (26th Feb 2016) then after a gap up to 7053 Nifty took over 3 hours to retrace 0.618 and if you just have a look at the volume charts you can very clearly see that the volumes were contracting as the decline was taking place in a slow manner.
Elliot wave counts: As per my analysis as per wave counts we did sent detailed updates to our clients during live Indian Stock Market hours and from a larger perspective we see a triple combination ending and the trend line of that triple combination comes in at 6910 spot Nifty as per our analysis so the entire move from 9000 to now has been a large combination of triple combination corrective. Whenever such a combination is ending we will see a triangle formation and that is what Nifty is exactly doing. During the triangle formation we clearly see that volumes and speed declines on the move on the downside and speed and volumes increase on the upside. That is clearly visible. Once this combination of corrective is over we see the overall move to be retraced by min 0.618 or may be even more and even if we consider 0.618 still the move will go well above 8250 which is what we have been predicting.
Astro cycles: There has been lot of talk about how Mars and Saturn and how it can play a destructive role in the Indian Stock markets so let us look at the overall picture that astro cycle and time cycles combined are showing us. Mars represents aggression, action, attack. Saturn represents reduction, contraction. Now what does this do in the World Stock Markets as per our historical back testing it always has moved opposite to the Janta positions. So since Janta is short we are expecting an aggressive short covering move which is being indicated by Elliot wave and the previous major geocosmic signature North Node which has forced people in mandi deception. Astro cycles always need to be used in a context and never can be used as a standalone tool. Its effectiveness will increase and be very precise only when it is used in terms of a combination with other major studies. Now if we look at the position of the moon around the budget time we see that it once again will create a range bound volatility and then breakout on the upside. On Sunday 28th Feb 2016 Sun conjuncts Neptune and this geocosmic signature is a level 1 signature for primary cycles having 94 percent probability to change the trend in a orbit of 6 trading days. So even the larger astro cycle are indicating buying and end of this trend on the downside.
Share Market Tips 29th Feb 2016
[08:50, 2/26/2016] +91 90040 79145: Gm
[08:50, 2/26/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told
[10:12, 2/26/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold all positions as told.
[10:12, 2/26/2016] +91 90040 79145: Case 1 seems to be playing out
[13:09, 2/26/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told
[13:09, 2/26/2016] +91 90040 79145: Delivery Call Update: IDBI Bank Hold rem 50% positions as told.
[13:09, 2/26/2016] +91 90040 79145: Delivery Call Update: Cairn India Hold rem 50% positions as told.
[13:10, 2/26/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Hold Nifty March 7300 Put 1 Part Short & Hold Nifty March 7500 Put 2 Parts shorts till next update
[14:15, 2/26/2016] +91 90040 79145: as per our analysis triangle formation is underway as mentioned in case 1 yesterday and we see this triangle to create consolidation and then a breakout on the upside. Such consolidation creates the much needed upside thrust and subsequent breakout. We once again reiterate that we see 8250 and then 8800-9000.
Nifty spot support and resistance for tomorrow 29th Feb 2016 is at 6810 and 7180.
Good Trading To You!