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SGX Nifty 29th July 2016
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS MY OVERALL VIEW ON THE NIFTY AND THAT DOES NOT MEAN PRECISE ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THIS POST. IF YOU ARE TRADING ONLY ON THE BASIS OF THIS POST PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE RISK MANAGEMENT AND THEN ONLY TRADE. PLEASE DO NOT OVER TRADE.
SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures continued its topping process and overall process of creating froth formation. We have said this long back that when the move Is about to end everyone will be talking of 9000-10500 and that also has been done. As we said yesterday we are now in matured stage of the rally and we are expecting the bear market to resume shortly. Banks look very weak to us and we must not have any long exposure to them.
Nifty has been doing its thing but we want to highlight an important point today. See the astro cycle that started on 4th March 2015 showed us that silver will do well and silver moved form 32-34 towards 47-48 presently. We did trade in silver and make money. MSL now has given almost 60% return from the time we initiated buy call on MSL. Tata Coffee too has given 43% return since the time we have initiated buying in Tata Coffee. Renuka sugar is doing well so is Bajaj Hindustan and EID Parry. Ugar sugar has been the star performer with returns of 200% plus from 23 to 69 in a matter of few months. Raw sugar prices and coffee prices also have been steadily moving higher as part of the astro cycle. The point that we are highlighting is that all this moves are a part of the same astro cycle. Nifty too is a part of the same astro cycle. Nifty we were seeing that this move will end around 8250 and apologies that we misread the last part of the rally but the point we are saying is that it is not possible for all other components of astro to move exactly as it was showing and Nifty or global stock markets to do some other thing.
When Nifty was at 7000 we were aggressively buying. Most traders and many others said that such massive negatives are there and Nifty is headed for 6500, 6300 but we stuck to our prediction of Nifty moving higher. We have also mentioned at that time itself (we are not saying this today we mentioned this when Nifty was at 7000) that Nifty will have one round of “Bina kaaran tezi” and then collapse. We mentioned even that time that much lower levels will come but before that happens one round of tezi cycle will come and that too has happened. I know most people will write this off as most people said at 7000 that it is not possible for Nifty to move beyond 7600. Same way many people will say worst comes to worst 7500 at this present juncture but we see something else on our astro charts and price charts. We have checked our cycles again and we can clearly say this that cycle that started on 4th March 2015 is not yet done. What we see is that there will not be a correction but a collapse not only in India but worldwide and this is not going to be restricted to equities it will be across business and risk on asset classes and we do not see that cycle being good for risk on assets.
Also let us go back in history and see what has happened when Valuations in global markets have reached where they are presently. The only other time in history that world markets were at such peak valuations was in 1929 and in 2007 and now we are more or less at similar valuations in most world markets. In those cases equities collapsed by 80-70 percent. History repeats itself. So even if we do not see 70-80 percent price damage we surely will see a massive collapse in the coming time. Please keep that in mind. Further no one ever has made money in the markets buying at such hefty valuations since 1991 in our markets. We do not think that something new is taking place and we see the same cycle repeating.
Good Trading To You!