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SGX Nifty 4th July 2016
SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures today continued moving higher however as per our Nifty view / Nifty prediction we maintain our overall outlook.
This is what we had mentioned in our 22nd Feb 2016 Update
“We could also see one of the most powerful “Bina kaaran Tezi” for this calendar year which we see will begin anytime now. We are not in the camp which believes that Nifty will come towards 6500 now, sure we will see 6500 and even 5851 but not now. As of now there will be a massive bullish cycle which has to as per rule suck every bearish guy into massive tezi. As the street is in a total consensus that we will see 6500 now and then 6300 similarly the street and entire analyst fraternity will talk to 10500 at that point in time but please remember Rahu (North Node) who will power this move will only end up creating hyper valuations and froth. We once again are repeating that longer term we will still fall so please understand this is only a trade in and out move not a buy for 10 years and sit. This is not the time to “Buy right and sit tight” it is just the time to “0Buy right and then book higher and then wait again to buy right”.”
This is what we mentioned in our 23rd Feb 2016 Update
“Please understand our view correctly we are clearly saying longer term there is significant mandi and bear cycle remaining to be played out but for the short term we see a bullish move that could move higher and create a fast bullish cycle move that will force most of the Indian stock market participants into full bullishness and everyone will talk about 10500, 12500 like everyone in the analyst fraternity are now talking about 6500 and 6300 right now. So once there is a total consensus from the general public and you start seeing more advertisement on TV saying “Buy right and sit tight” then its time once again to get out from the markets. “
“This down cycle as per our analysis using a combination of astro cycles and time cycle and using elliot wave systems shows us the final bottom for this market will be around 12th-26th Dec 2016. So around 12th-26th dec 2016 we could be in between 5851-6300 but in the interim now we do not see further panic and we see bullishness (please keep in mind during the budget speech or just post the budget as per time cycle a panic is possible hence during that panic buying must be done in a staggered manner as holding 6790 we see up move and then again fall towards 6300-5851 area)”
This is what we had mentioned in our 24th Feb 2016 Update
“Like as of now everyone is talking about 6500 and 6300. Sure 6300 will come I am not denying that in fact even 5851 will come but before that final bear cycle comes we will see a massive “Bina kaarann tezi cycle” which will be very similar to the 1999 boom of dot com. Everyone on earth from your chai walla to the pan walla will start talking about 10500,12500 at that juncture this bullish cycle will end not before that. “
This is what we had mentioned in our 29th Feb 2016 Update
“As per our Indian Stock Market analysis / tips / Nifty Prediction we do not see downside beyond 6790 spot Nifty and as said we are clear that unless there are four trading closes below 6790 our view for 8250”
This is what we had mentioned in our 11th March 2016 Update
“As per our Indian Stock Market tips / Nifty Prediction we see Nifty heading towards 8250 in this round and we do not see any significant downside from here so the strategy must be to use dips to buy and hold on dips or consolidation or on small stop loss points, under no circumstances is this market a sell on rise for now. “
This is what we mentioned in our 11th March 2016 Update
“As per our Indian Stock Market tips / Nifty Prediction we see Nifty heading towards 8250 in this round and we do not see any significant downside from here so the strategy must be to use dips to buy and hold on dips or consolidation or on small stop loss points, under no circumstances is this market a sell on rise for now. All the Stock Market participants are just talking mandi / bearish and no one is interested to buy at all but if we look at the charts Nifty is just consolidating the entire bullish move and in the next round of tezi / bullish cycle which will start anytime in 1-2 days we will see Nifty heading towards 8250”
This is what we mentioned in 15h March 2016 update
“If we go back to first week of Feb 2016 at that juncture this is the exact situation we were prediction. Rahu (North Node) the master of deception first forced people out of longs then forced them back into shorts and now until and unless he does not force Janta back into longs he will not allow the market to fall.”
As you can see from our past post we had clearly predicted this current situation. Hyper valuations and everyone yelling tezi. This is exactly what we were seeing around the lower side levels of 7000.Though we could have timed our trades better but that does not change our overall wave counts or Nifty view. As per our Nifty View / Nifty Prediction we see the topping range for Nifty spot between (a) and it is clearly possible that during intraday trade it moves to levels of (b) but post moving there we do not see it sustaining and we maintain our view that we will see a massive bear cycle soon. We have been wrong for the past 300 points now as we were assuming that g had failed in fact it did not end at 8285 as we were thinking. Kindly use appropriate risk management and trade if you are trading only on the basis of this post. There are significant resistances around (c) we are not suggesting that (c) higher end will come but it is just to mention that even if Nifty enters anywhere around that area it will collapse from there during intraday trade. Hence please keep that in mind.
Let us now look at the sentiment indicator. Everyone is super bullish. Everyone has forgotten what fundamental problems were there with the economy and are talking about how good India is looking. To my mind I can not see what fundamentally has happened expect worsening of the overall macro situation. Inflation is now up for 3 months in a row, crude oil bill for Govt is higher by almost 100%, Exports are now falling for 18 months in a row, RBI is not going to cut rates for the next 2-3 months at least, Valuations are at extremely high levels from where historically no one has every made money buying at those levels. In this kind of macro environment we do not think investments will make any money. We were seeing exactly this situation to arrive and people to become super bullish.
Technically as per our wave counts we see that g wave which is currently on going can go on for a few more days but once g wave ends we see a larger fall. The fall will be fast (what news will trigger it I do not know but charts are clearly indicating a massive fall) Please do not over trade and please use appropriate risk management if you are trading only on the basis of this post. We will put in place contingency plans on Monday morning if we see that needs to be done. So we will adjust our positions accordingly. There are divergences on charts and when we look at larger time frame charts we see that the rally is done deal though we could see some move towards (d) during intraday or during early morning trade of Monday or Wednesday but I am not in the camp that thinks that we are headed much higher from here. As per astro cycle and time cycle also we see the rally in mature stage and even as per our wave character confirmation we are very clear that this is not a tezi cycle. It was just a pullback cycle and it is about to end in the next few days.
Good Trading To You!