SGX Nifty 5th May 2016

SGX Nifty

LTP  8,576.00   -128.00   -1.49% High 8,710.00 Low 8,546.50

SGX Nifty

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SGX Nifty 5th May 2016

SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures today was seen consolidating in a small range and finally closed the day lower by 40 points. As per our Indian Stock market Analysis our Nifty View remain the same and we once again reiterate that use any rise to exit trapped long positions and short sell Nifty Futures at appropriate points or low risk entry points. Nifty Today has given us a final trend reversal confirmation and as per the Nifty Future Tips / Nifty Prediction we see significant downside remaining in this current move for Nifty Futures so do not jump and start buying for now or even cover short selling positions, does that mean that pullbacks will not be seen. The answer to that is probably not from time to time in fact every one to five trading days we will keep getting counter trend pullbacks these pullbacks will make you believe that  the bull run or the bullish move has started once again but in reality it will only turn out to be another classic lower top on Nifty Chart when observed on some larger time frames to put it in simple words we will see exactly replica of the kind of move we had seen yesterday in the morning when everyone suddenly became bullish and then post that everyone was trapped. Traders may recall that Mercury is Retrograde in Taurus and it will behave like the younger brother of Rahu (North Node) in a very similar manner but the net results of deception will remain the same. Rahu (North Node) is like a test match player doing deception while Mercury Retrograde in Taurus will be like the 20-20 innings which will deceive for few hours and then move on in the main trend direction which is down.  Just keep this in mind that we will get much more lower levels to buy Indian Equities so please do not be in a haste to rebuild your portfolio. 

When we have done a historical back testing for Indian Stock Markets based on fundamental analysis we have seen four very important points in the portfolios that have actually made great money. The first thing we noticed that all these investors bought money with spare capital (the money they were not bothered about so for the next 10 years it did not matter to them if that was in Fixed income or equities). The second factor that ensured all of them made great money was that they all had bought all these stocks cheap which essentially means that the current valuations at the time of buying were very cheap. Third factor that was seen in these portfolios was that most of them invested in need based products companies which had a reasonable forward looking business outlook and the fourth factor that made really great money for all the portfolios that we looked at was they all bought near major cycle bottoms.  This has been the genesis of great investors. Now when some of these people come on some news channels (and mind you some of them are close friends of mine yet I can not understand how and why these people are talking about green shoots in the economy) In simple words the way to make money in investments is to buy right and sit tight fine but only buy right when they are cheap and nearing a bottom of the down cycle.  Many parameters will tell you that you are near the bottom of the cycle and as of right now there is still down cycle remaining in terms of time so please do not be in a haste to buy and build you portfolio.

Many people have been asking me about when to buy Axis Bank I think I must tell you the final target 250-275. Before that do not even think of buying Axis Bank as asset quality problems will just get worse from here on also. The results of most of the private sector banks have come at some critical astro points which makes us believe that the management of these banks have not told the shareholders and the general public the real story which is the magnitude of the problem and we did see these stocks and our conclusion is that they must be avoided at this stage.

Use dips to buy Tata Coffee, renuka Sugar, eid Parry, MSL, Bajaj Hind. All these stocks will do very well in the coming time. When to reenter Kesoram and NMDC we will update our clients.

Nifty spot support and resistance for tomorrow is at 7511 and 7762. Chat Transcript for today as sent to clients is enclosed below

[08:59, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Gm
[08:59, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update  Nifty May 7500 Call Hold 1 Part Short, Nifty May 7600 Call Hold 2 Parts Shorts & Nifty May Fut Hold 1 Part Short Till Next Update
[09:03, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Once we get final confirmation we will take stbt and intraday short s also
[09:24, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Below 7710 spot Nifty we have final confirmation of down move
[09:24, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told
[09:25, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: When and where to sell more I will update
[09:25, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Accumulate renuka Bajaj hind Eid parry on dips
[09:40, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update  Nifty May 7500 Call Hold 1 Part Short, Nifty May 7600 Call Hold 2 Parts Shorts & Nifty May Fut Hold 1 Part Short Till Next Update
[09:40, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold as told
[09:46, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Usdinr hold 1 part longs
[09:46, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Till next update
[10:14, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: wait for msg to sell more
[10:16, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told and wait for final confirmation
[10:17, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: we get final confirmation below 7710 spot Nifty
[10:40, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Confirmation done
[10:40, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Final confirmation done
[10:41, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told and wait for fresh selling msg
[10:42, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Target for this down move will be updated when we book profits in our short positions
[12:51, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Wait for msg to sell more
[14:10, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Shanti sea hold existing shorts as told
[14:10, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: When and where to add more I will update
[14:15, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Usdinr hold 1 part longs till next update
[14:15, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Impex trades pl be hedged
[14:15, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Upper side 68.10 tgt
[14:15, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Spot usdinr levels
[15:10, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: please take the rem part of the day off
[15:10, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: and please come prepared tomorrow
[15:10, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: if we get small sl or low risk entry point then we will add shorts
[15:10, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update  Nifty May 7500 Call Hold 1 Part Short, Nifty May 7600 Call Hold 2 Parts Shorts & Nifty May Fut Hold 1 Part Short Till Next Update
[15:13, 4/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Nifty Charts / Nifty Share Price is consolidating for now and down ward price move will be seen in the next 2-3 trading days taking Nifty towards 7500-7600 in the near term (please note this is not the downside target but only next 2-3 days move which we are expecting) before that move pans out we could see a last pullback may 40-50 points and that time we will enter fresh shorts if we have to or if we do get a small stop loss point. At this jucture we are within a consolidation mode and it does not make any sense to take a short selling position now.

Good Trading To You!