SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures 2nd Dec 2015
SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures Minor Trend remains up / bullish. SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures Major Trend remains up / bullish. We reiterate our view use all dips / panics / falls / corrections in Indian Stock Market to initiate / add fresh trading long positions as we do not see any significant downside in the Indian Stock Market or Global Stock Markets for now at least. The current situation may change post FED reserve policy but as of now the trend on all time frames is clearly indicating a bullish move towards 8600 give or take few 100 or 150 points on either side but the move is on the upside for now at least and risk reward ratio favors buying or trading long positions. It will not pay or make any money to sell the risk or short selling on higher side will not make any significant money. The current up move is slow because at the end of the day the current wave is a corrective wave and is not a impulsive wave, hence such slow drag is seen but even within the slow drag prices are moving higher and making higher bottoms and higher tops which is a classic signal of the main trend.
Nifty support and resistance for tomorrow is at 7875 and 8133. Nifty has been steadily building a good base around 7875 and we expect the base is being created for a proper launch towards 8600 within Dec Series, having said that the way to make money will be through selling puts or Buying Nifty Dec Futures. The overall scenario is Indian Stock Market participants are net short heavily but there are some traders who are now taking / buying out of the money calls in Dec series. Our suggestion / advice to them is to avoid buying out of the money calls as that will not yield much money even if Nifty does come to 8600 as the time value loss and IV reduction will reduce the overall profitability of the trade.
SGX Nifty today was flat as it has been for the past few trading days but given the Share Market News flow expected this week we now are heading for some volatility in Indian Stock Market soon and we do not see a sideways movement like the one we are seeing right now continue for long. Be Careful in short selling positions as some officials from North Block are expected to announce some positive triggers soon. (smart money is indicating that, I do not have any khabari there)
Reserve Bank of India kept the rates unchanged today in its bi-monthly policy along expected lines and going forward we can expect one more rate cut by 0.25 bps before March 2016, it could be more likely after budget 2016. As per our Interest rates prediction we do not see any further rate cuts then for next 6-7 months and we could again see a rate hike cycle as inflation will begin picking up once again.
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