Muhurat Trading Picks 2015
Investment Outlook for Indian Stock Markets over next 12 months (Till Next Diwali 2016)
Our Muhurat Trading Pick for 2015 Buy Bajaj Hindustan, Renuka Sugar, EID Parry and Maharashtra Scooters expect 50-100 percent upside from today’s prices 4th Nov 2015.
I am writing this update because a lot of my very dear clients both from the institutional side and HNI side have called me over the last few days asking me to give them investment calls with 1 year horizon and I am once again clarifying to be honest as of today looking at the environment in India the best investment will be holding cash and waiting for panic to set in with the exception of Sugar Sector I do not see any significant buy and hold opportunities over next 12 months. Sure we will get trading rallies and we will have to trade in and out during those times but keep in mind these trades will not be a buy and hold. You will have to keep churning your portfolio as and when we keep updating you. Over the next 12 months we do see a major panic to set in the global space and a global risk aversion will be seen. During that time it will look like the world equities markets are coming to a end. Lots of Investors will be trapped in numerous stocks and Nifty may even see 6800, at the time when there is total gloom that is the time to invest big and hold. At that point in time we must be having cash to deploy hence today we must hold on to cash as of today to maximize returns then. If you are running a SIP switch the SIP to liquid fund and in panic towards 6800-7200 deploy that cash. Our Muhurat Trading Pick for 2015 Buy Bajaj Hindustan, Renuka Sugar, EID Parry and Maharashtra Scooters. Fundamentals and micro economic picture don’t look good at least they don’t look good today. Then the problems of fund outflows which will happen with the FED raising interest rates and ending it’s ZERO interest rate policy. So combination of both is a dangerous cocktail. High Valuations, Low Growth, Fund Out flows and most important even two or three quarters down the road growth is expected to be flat. The only silver lining is Global commodity prices have moved lower but if we don’t see a turnaround now then we are in for the next rising commodity cycle and that will again hurt the macro picture for India. Overall for the next 1 year we do not see Nifty Trading significantly above 8800. The valuation of most stocks caps the upside.
Once FED increases or rather begins increasing rates we have outflows which will take INR to 72-70 which our longer term targets and that could trigger a global risk off taking Nifty to our final target area of 6800-7200. I am not saying all this will happen in few months but we definitely see this panning out over the next 12 months.
Last year India received 15 bn$ as inflow this year we have got only 3bn$ till now and over the next few months FED will raise rates hence instead of inflow we are looking at an outflow. We doubt domestic money will be able to support the Stock Market at these valuations.
Good Trading To You!