Share Market News 30th Nov 2015- 4th Dec 2015
On 30th Nov 2015, international monetary fund or IMF could grant China’s Yuan reserve currency status. This means Yuan will be a part in the IMP Special Drawing Rights basket which, while largely symbolic, would appreciate the currency and China’s influence in the global economy.
On 4th Dec 2015 US November jobs report will be released. It is one of the most important data points to watch for the coming week as it is the last big piece of data for the Fed to consider before its rate hike meeting Dec. 15 and 16.
There is also the Governing Council of Euro Central Bank’s meeting in Frankfurt on 3rd Dec 2015, where it is expected to reiterate its easing program and the diverging central bank policies should continue to play out in markets. Eventually as a result of diverging Central Bank Policies between FED and European Central Bank we see Euro-dollar parity or may be even 0.80 to the dollar. Interestingly the Euro Central bank has announced a Christmas break and will not be buying bonds between Dec 22nd 2015-4th Jan 2016. The ECB is expected to possibly add to its quantitative easing program and extend it to different types of debt. The ECB could also cut its already negative deposit rate by another 10 basis points.
Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will speak twice next week, and she is expected to convey the FED’s message that it wants to raise rates on 16th Dec 2015 by 0.125. As per Astro cycles she may rate hike by 0.125 Bps looks likely in Dec 2015 and it will signal the end of zero interest rate policy. Another important message the astro cycles are communicating is the possibility of FED announcing rate hike but it will be effective from Feb 2016 and that will allow the markets to adjust gradually to change from Zero Interest rate policy.
OPEC is expected to continue its current policy on oil, but the meeting may show differences within members that want the policy to change. Venezuela which is facing severe problems on the domestic front tops the list, but Iran and others may also want OPEC to cut some production in order to stabilize falling prices which has been in a downward spiral since beginning of this year. Iran would want to clear the way for its own oil to come back on the market, once sanctions are lifted.
With so much Share market news flow over the next few trading days we expect volatility to return to Indian Stock Markets which have been rather sideways over the past one month. For most of the Nov series, Nifty Futures has been stuck between 7950-7700 a small range of 250 points. While the Janata is totally short and sentiment indicators showing hardly any bullish voices or positions,further we expect positive news from Parliament in winter session so we can safely expect Nifty to touch 8600 in Dec 2015 series.
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