Bank Nifty 10th Nov 2015
Bank Nifty today morning following Nifty made a low of 16587 and then staged a beautiful recovery through the day. Bank Nifty although did breach our major support level of 16700 but did not complete the parameters for medium term trend to be revised downwards. Hence we are revising our major support level to 16431 (Bank Nifty Spot Levels Mentioned) Overall Bank Nifty can move higher from here slowly and steadily but we do not expect any major or significant outperformance from Bank Nifty.
Bank Nifty Minor Trend is oversold. Bank Nifty Major Trend is down / bearish. As Nifty moves towards 8600 we can expect Bank Nifty to also move 5-6 percent higher from current prices. Even though we see Bank Nifty moving higher we do not recommend taking exposure to this sector as we have better value in Sugar sector. Today in the morning we have once again told our clients to buy into sugar stocks. We believe Sugar sector and especially Bajaj Hindustan, EID Parry and Renuka Sugar will significantly outperform Banking sector as a whole. We once again reiterate longer term competition from wallets will have huge problems for Banking Sector especially Axis Bank and Icici Bank (and we know most brokerages are over weight both these Banks including all top mutual fund managers are over weight these two stocks but we do not see any value by investing in these stocks from current juncture)
Axis Bank immediate support now is at 443 and resistances are at 535 NSE Cash Levels Mentioned. Overall we see Axis Bank moving within this range if Axis Bank fails to move past 535 in the rally towards 8600+ then expect even 310 as a lower side target for Axis bank. Axis Bank is another of those consensus trade where all fund managers, HNI all are long and share a view that Bank will do well but charts are indicating other picture. Extreme caution is advised in Axis Bank and Icici Bank. Icici Bank if fails to cross 298 during Nifty’s up move then longer term Icici Bank will test 198. I don’t wish to scare Private sector banking investors I am just writing what I see as per our astro cycle and price charts.
Public Sector Banks are no different the entire sector will go through problems of asset quality, NPA’s will shoot up towards 2016 March and charts don’t look great. If compulsive exposure has to be taken to the sector then State Bank of India will be our bet from this sector.
Good Trading To You!