Bihar Elections 2015

Bihar Election 2015

Bihar election results will be out on Sunday 8th Nov 2015. Being a holiday for the Indian Stock Markets we will react directly on Monday 9th Nov 2015 with a gap up or a gap down. If the NDA does win in Bihar then we will see a upside relief rally of 200 odd points taking Nifty towards 8300. If NDA looses in Bihar we should expect 200-250 points lower on Monday 9th Nov 2015. As per our Stock Market Analysis we have a time cycle support between 5-9th Nov 2015 means we will be making a higher bottom into the event. We do not feel Nifty will make a lower top during this time zone. If NDA looses in Bihar expect a further slowdown in policies / reforms. The pace of reforms has been slow or rather not at the pace what the Stock Markets want it to be but that is generally the case. Every analyst painted a picture in May 2015 that India’s micro economic problems will get sorted out in 6-8 months time but we are far from there.

Bihar Election Indian Stock Market implications

If NDA wins expect a upside towards 8300 if NDA loses expect a downside of 7700. Overall this would be the range we see the Nifty in regardless of the result. Our analysis does show the formation of a higher bottom but if you are trading only on the basis of this post please trade with proper risk management systems.

Avoid buying puts or calls. The IV’s along with the time value are too high even if Nifty goes lower to 7800 or goes higher to 8250 then also most option buying traders will loose money. If you are betting for a lower side then sell calls and if you are betting for higher side sell puts. This will be a better strategy as per our analysis. Avoid heavy positions as usual around a event and trade light till 9th Nov 2015. Let the results be out of the way. Then resuming trading in the direction of the main trend.

Astro cycle does not show a runaway market and fundamentals look stretched hence upsides will be capped for the time being.

Good Trading To You!


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