Mahurat Trading 2016
First of all let us look back the year gone by and our predictions that we had put out. To read our complete view for the last year please click here http://www.mallavv.com/share-market-tips/muhurat-trading-picks-2015.html
Our Muhurat Trading Pick for 2015 Buy Bajaj Hindustan, Renuka Sugar, EID Parry and Maharashtra Scooters.
Bajaj Hindustan did not do well in this year as per our expectations. Renuka Sugar from last year has given around 40% return, EID Parry has given a return of 52% and Maharashtra Scooters has given a return of 53% from 4th Nov 2015 till now. So it has been a good year overall with the exception of Bajaj Hindustan. Bajaj Hindustan was flat so the average return over last year is a good 36.25%. I think that is a good performance sure we could have done better but still it has been a commendable performance as per our standards.
This is what we had mentioned in our post that day
“You will have to keep churning your portfolio as and when we keep updating you. Over the next 12 months we do see a major panic to set in the global space and a global risk aversion will be seen. During that time it will look like the world equities markets are coming to a end.”
“Nifty may even see 6800, at the time when there is total gloom that is the time to invest big and hold. At that point in time we must be having cash to deploy hence today we must hold on to cash as of today to maximize returns then. If you are running a SIP switch the SIP to liquid fund and in panic towards 6800-7200 deploy that cash.”
” Overall for the next 1 year we do not see Nifty Trading significantly above 8800. The valuation of most stocks caps the upside. “
“outflows which will take INR to 72-70 which our longer term targets and that could trigger a global risk off taking Nifty to our final target area of 6800-7200. I am not saying all this will happen in few months but we definitely see this panning out over the next 12 months. “
As you can see we had predicted most of the big moves well in advance and all our predictions which were based on astro cycles, time cycles, Gann Wave, Elliot wave and have been spot on. So I hope even the people who are not our clients would have made good money following our advice. That is of course if the advice was followed.
Now lets look at the year ahead. First and foremost what we are guiding here may not be to your liking or understanding or you may even choose to invalidate our statements and analysis but we still request you to keep them in mind whenever you take trades or invest. My job is to tell you what I see and what I am going to do and what I am trading myself. I am not here to write what you want to read. I will be very objective in my writing and it is based on my analysis. Some of you may even abuse me for what I will be writing or may hate me but I must tell you honestly what I see so please understand I do not have anything personal against any company or individual. I am merely communicating what I am seeing in the coming next year with the best intentions. If it suits you please follow or else do not follow.
In the next 12-18 months I do not see any money being made in stocks. You may buy any front line stock and you will not make money, you may do SIP in the best mutual fund and still you will not make money. You may buy property and still will not make money. You may buy land and still will not make money You may buy Gold and still you will not make money, You may buy Silver and still 12 months down the line you will not make money. As you can understand now that almost all asset classes will not make any money when we take a 12 months picture from now, if you probably do all the right things then you may not end up loosing money. So many of you and even me for that matter are coming to the next question is what to do for the next one year to make money?
The answer is trading in and out for the time being and only for the time being because after that trade in and out in a few months it will be just a sell and hold because we will start seeing mayhem that has not been seen in years if not decades (why will it happen I do not know, how it will happen I will not describe everything in detail here or anywhere else but just keep in mind that this is what I see, tomorrow it must not happen that as my client or as a regular reader of this website you say you just did not know, by reading this you very well know.)
So now what to do to make money? Here are a few suggestions but please keep in mind that at some point in time you will have to get out of these and these are not buy and hold strategies. We will update our clients when to but if you are not our client and are only trading on the basis of this post then please take your own call because if you get stuck in the wrong trade you will be wiped out partially if not totally.
Our Muhurat Trading Pick for 2016
Gold in panic can be bought around 1172-1235 (price in dollar terms) and bookstarting at 1400 onwards.
Silver can be accumulated for the time being on dips / panic and booked ahead of 48000.
Ugar sugar can be bought below 38 and booked as you deem fit.
Renuka sugar also you can buy below 16 and book as you deem fit.
I do not suggest buying any stocks for long term at current prices though we may enter in some panic and exit again but that will be trading not investments. If you can not trade in the stocks or precious metals that we have mentioned then please avoid parking money anywhere and be on cash as much as possible. In the coming time we see Nifty going towards 5872 if not a bit more lower than 5872 it may take a little more time than next Diwali but the damage would well be underway well before next Diwali so in order to protect ones capital and make money it will be very necessary to get out totally out of all risk on assets at some stage during the coming 12 months and either short sell or be on cash or fixed income. As far as moving money to fixed income goes please go to AAA plus rating only do not trust the lower end ones as we see a high probability of a default in payments by the lower credit rating ones so please keep that in mind.
There is some frenzy about buying real estate please let me tell you and prospective home owners please fasten your seat belt. You will get your dream home at 30-50 percent lesser prices in the next 12-18 months. Just keep cash in hand for that and you will have developers giving you deep discounts as they would need money and they would need money fast so if you as a prospective buyer can give them fast money they wont mind dumping their stock. Important thing is do not buy any under construction properties during that panic selling as we do not see many of them completing their respective projects.
Gold if you want to accumulate then you will be getting a great deal but still there is time for that too but keep in mind that we do not see value to Gold moving much higher for sometime so do not buy that as a investment during the initial part of the gold fall retail buyers will jump to accumulate and I suggest you let the janta do what they have to do again when we make this prediction we could see some more time than next Diwali probably end of 2017 but still we do not see much value in buying the yellow metal.
As far as Indian economy and Corporate earnings go I do not see much pick up yes there could be a bit of a pick up in Q4FY 16 but FY17 as a whole we do not see any earnings growth I will be surprised if we do not see contraction in earnings over the next few months and at these valuations I do not see how stocks will make money. In the history of the stock market people have not made money buying at such hefty valuations so I can not understand how this time it is going to be different but anyways that does not matter brokers will get retail and even most of the readers of this article to buy and buy heavily but we do not suggest to buy at all. If traded properly keep in mind that most traders will end up with a fortune if not a lottery kind of money in the next 12 odd months but that does not look to be on the buying side and hence we have not provided any long term buy and hold stocks. During this move down we will have one sharp pullback that will trap most traders in long side trade please be aware of that. Once the long trade is done it will be business as usual and mayhem will be seen on the streets. As far as business go I will not be surprised to see 30 percent of existing business default on their payments. People who are trading on cash settlement basis like diamond merchants or traders should especially be careful and avoid proving much credit and keep the trade to a rolling payment rather than longer duration of credit as the risk of a default will be very high.
As I end this update please let me tell you once again I do not want to scare you but want to keep you informed. Please be careful over the next one year and do your bit for people who do not have a back up it will surely reduce the load on you as far as astro cycle support goes. The oncoming time is very dangerous if you buy and I wish you all the very best.
Wishing you all a very happy Diwali.
God Bless and take care