Nifty Futures 12th March 2018
Nifty Futures today had a volatile day today along expected lines. So let us look at the situation from an analytical stand point.
Sentiment has turned bullish again. Most people are of the view that Nifty has made a bottom and that Nifty is now heading back up and higher towards 12000-13000 or some are of the view that Nifty is moving back to 11000 highs and from an open interest stand point we can see that most people and market participants have just averaged their stuck long positions and the logic or the investment rationale is that Nifty has now corrected almost 10 percent from the top so the bull market correction that everyone was expecting is done and now we should head back higher. Some others were saying Nifty had to touch the 200 DEMA which it generally does and now since that criteria is meet Nifty will now move higher while some others were saying that the panic bottom of 10047 made on the Gujarat elections counting day will hold under any circumstances and hence we should be buying and the last segment of people who are bullish were saying that all the financials have corrected enough and hence we see markets heading higher because all the negative news is in the price. The common answer that we got when we asked all of them is that where is the stop loss for this trade? They all said numbers between 10030-10050 on spot Nifty levels so if we do break this area which according to our Nifty prediction / Nifty analysis will happen (when and how that’s a different point altogether) but if the markets start falling and do take out these levels we can see some really sharp selling pressure due to the Janta having the same trade. Historically whenever the trade is the same or majority are trading in the same direction with more or less the same stop loss people have not made money so just keep in mind that most people are all trading long and all are having very similar stops so be very careful.
Now when we look at the price charts we do not see any faster retracement over the last falling segment nor do we see very heavy volumes and nor do we see any of the signs that we generally associate with a rally that has started post a sharp decline so on the price charts we do not have any signals that the current down wave is over but at the same time we are not suggesting that pullbacks cant come sure they will keep coming from time to time and nor are we suggesting that pullbacks will end tomorrow sure it can hold for a few days but eventually we do not see the pullbacks holding for now. The most important factor to keep in mind is that Indian stock markets are under performing the global stock markets and it is time that the global stock markets will also be ending its pullback so bad news on the domestic front from SBI and a few more banks which still have not come out in the public domain and coupled with negative global cues and add to that the common stop loss that every bullish person has could make matters worse in very short span of time. Trade safe.
Part of what we recomended to our clients
3/7/18, 9:01 AM – Glen Drago: Gm 3/7/18, 9:01 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 4 parts positional shorts as told 3/7/18, 9:01 AM – Glen Drago: Will update if anything has to be done 3/7/18, 9:03 AM – Glen Drago: As things stand we see Nifty moving lower as margin calls and SL of 10275-10250 spot Nifty area has been triggered. Most people have revised theory SL to yesterday’s low so break of that will create lot of supply in the market and as per sources DII s are not in a hurry to buy into the Indian stock market for now 3/7/18, 9:03 AM – Glen Drago: The true test of the SIP money will be seen now 3/7/18, 9:59 AM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told 3/7/18, 9:59 AM – Glen Drago: will keep updating if anything needs to be done 3/7/18, 10:00 AM – Glen Drago: minor consolidations will keep taking place from time to time in this fall also but whenever we have to do anything will update 3/7/18, 10:00 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 4 parts positional shorts as told 3/7/18, 10:01 AM – Glen Drago: as and when we get chance for stbt trade will update 3/7/18, 10:03 AM – Glen Drago: a day or two of minor consolidation around the 10300-10200 spot Nifty level area followed by break of 10200 (which will happen eventually) will be even a better trade set up 3/7/18, 10:03 AM – Glen Drago: will keep updating if anything needs to be done 3/7/18, 11:06 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 4 parts positional shorts as told 3/7/18, 11:06 AM – Glen Drago: if anything else to do will update 3/7/18, 11:11 AM – Glen Drago: Pullback during down moves will keep coming as we have guided but they won’t sustain 3/7/18, 1:56 PM – Sharsh Darga removed from the list 3/7/18, 2:59 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 4 parts positional shorts as told 3/7/18, 2:59 PM – Glen Drago: If anything to do will update 3/7/18, 11:01 PM – Glen Drago: TDP pulls out of Government 3/8/18, 9:07 AM – Glen Drago: Good morning 3/8/18, 9:07 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 4 parts positional shorts as told 3/8/18, 9:07 AM – Glen Drago: Will update in sometime 3/8/18, 9:20 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty is moving perfectly along expected lines. Yesterday many of you were calling me and asking where to cover shorts but we reiterate that we don’t need to cover shorts for now as there is still more downside in the present wave sure pullback like the one today morning will keep coming but overall the main trend will continue lower for many reasons. For e.g let us look at sentiment analysis each and every person in the street is saying look the markets have fallen 10 percent from the top so we don’t see much more downside some others are saying we are close to the 200 dema and that’s about it no more fall from here and hence we should buy some others are saying the major low of 10047 will hold and that was a panic bottom and hence that will not break all these show that the overall sentiment is to buy the dip and there is a total concenses that downside is very limited from current prices but when we look at the charts from an analytical stand point we don’t see any signs of this current down wave to have ended. We expect some minor consolidation around the 10200 area may be at best 1-3 days and followed by a major panic selling which could take Nifty much lower from current prices. We will take stbt trade if we see safe selling opportunity only or otherwise we will just continue holding positional shorts that we have created around the 10900-11000 area and hold on till we see capulation 3/8/18, 9:26 AM – Glen Drago: We don’t see any pullback sustainable for now. Some consolidation is possible to adjust the momentum indicators but that does not mean a meaningful pullback has started. Any meaningful pullback will come only post a major capulation is seen and there is still bad news pending from the lies of SBI. Also another important point to keep in mind is that Indian stick market has been under performing with respect to the world stock market and we expect the world stock markets also to start their down move again once the pullback in the world stock markets is over we will see all major global indices moving lower and expect Indian stock market also to follow them or may be even lead the downside so hold positional shorts and if any safe stbt is there will guide 3/8/18, 1:25 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 4 parts positional shorts as told 3/8/18, 1:25 PM – Glen Drago: If anything else to do will update 3/8/18, 3:19 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 4 parts positional shorts as told 3/9/18, 9:08 AM – Glen Drago: Gm 3/9/18, 9:08 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 4 parts positional shorts as told 3/9/18, 9:08 AM – Glen Drago: Will update if anything has to be done 3/9/18, 9:15 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 4 parts positional shorts as told 3/9/18, 9:15 AM – Glen Drago: If anything to do will update 3/9/18, 9:18 AM – Glen Drago: As we have guided that we do not expect any major pullback nor do we see any pullback sustaining for now but at the same time pullbacks will keep coming from time to time. The current pullback that is ongoing also will not sustain as per our analysis though there could be some consolidation for the next 1-3 days as we have mentioned so do not bother about it. If we see any safe opportunity for STBT trade then only we will take that. 3/9/18, 9:21 AM – Glen Drago: The open interest positions show that most traders and investors have averaged or added long positions very aggressively since every one on the street is very bullish and the charts are showing a totally different picture we are very clear that current move is an pullback and an bull trap and we expect all these positions to see capitulation below 10000 levels in the Nifty 3/9/18, 9:21 AM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told if anything to do will update 3/9/18, 10:04 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty stbt trade sell 1 part between 10312-10343 spot Nifty levels mentioned 3/9/18, 3:10 PM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told 3/9/18, 3:10 PM – Glen Drago: Enjoy your weekend
Good Trading To You!