Nifty Futures Target, View, Prediction, Trend For 20-4-18

Nifty Futures Todays Trend, Support, Resistance, Prediction, Analysis, Target and View is given below

Nifty Futures today was seen in the green and was consolidating but was seen significantly underperforming the world stock markets and the reason is that Indian stock market is having significant headwinds on the macro front. The first major headwind that is panning out is crude oil futures. When Crude Oil was at lower end of 30 we had clearly predicted that crude oil futures is now making a major bottom and has an initial target of 48-50 and regular readers of this website are well aware that from 48-50 zone we revised our upper side target for crude oil to 82 and now that is also moving perfectly along predicted lines.  If we take a closer look at crude oil futures chart we can see that it has been making consistent higher tops and higher bottoms and when the structure is so clear we should not be arguing with the price chart. Some of you have called me and told me that what is so great about crude going to 82 it was at 140 in Jan 2008 yes I agree with you that in Jan 2008 it was at 140 but the important aspect at that juncture was USDINR pair was at 38-42 range and now INR has depreciated significantly and is around the 66 area and due to massive fiscal deficit and trade deficit problems INR is now heading towards 68-69. Please keep in mind that these are only near-term targets for INR we will not be surprised to see INR depreciating beyond 75 levels also so do not think that 68-69 is the end of depreciating cycle for INR. So coming back to crude oil in Indian rupee terms if we see the chart the lifetime high for crude oil futures in MCX was around the 7700 area and as of now crude oil has given a breakout and is heading for 6000 area so net effective price would just be around 110$/barrel when compared to 2008 scenario so the effects of this sharp crude oil bill will be felt both in terms of fiscal deficit but also in current account deficit. To add to the problems bond yields are heading higher and we expect them to be within the range of 7.50-7.95 so that means that the low-interest rate regime is over and we do expect Interest rates also to move higher and much more faster than what the street is estimating. We will not be surprised to see rate hike cycle starting as early as sept 2018 and that will create a lot of pressure for corporate as their bottom line profits will come under significant pressure and cost of capital will go up another problem arising out of this macro headwind is that inflation will start moving up much more faster and this will also impact demand so overall from a macro standpoint things do not look good for Indian equities.

Near-term Nifty Futures technical analysis outlook

Based on our analysis of Nifty Futures chart our strategy, view, prediction remains that near-term there are significant resistances around the 10650 levels and although the current Nifty trend is on the upside we are not recommending or advising to be buying fresh into the Indian stock market for now as we do not see upside targets immediately. We did buy around 10,000 levels after covering our short positions that we had built around 11,000 levels but for now we are not in the camp that is calling Nifty Futures targets of 11,000 or 14,000 or in other words Nifty Futures after the sharp fall that it had from 11,000 to 9952 now given a pullback which we were expecting and now it is important not to get carried away as we see massive macro headwinds that we have explained in our above. We are well aware that the sentiment and the strategy, for now, will be not to get carried away and to be very alert for now. Near-term support around 10400

Nifty Share Price / Nifty 50 / Nifty Futures today’s stats

Nifty spot LTP 10565 (+39.10, +0.37%) , Nifty 28April Futures LTP 10,579 (Previous Close 10538, Volume 75,007) , Nifty 31May Futures LTP 10608 (Previous Close 10567, Volume 9,637 ), Rollover Difference 29 points, Rollover percent 7.88% , Open Interest 391893 , OI Change 1.41%, PCR (Put Call Ratio) 1.4, Today’s Low-High 10546-10572. Top Gainer was Hindalco and Top Loser was BPCL. Most Open Interest Up INFY Most Open Interest Down CENTURYTEX. Daily Nifty spot RSI 62.94. Advance 947 Declines 790 Unchanged 309

Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty Live Streaming Real-Time Chart which updates on a real-time basis is provided below for reference Resistance, support levels have been discussed above 

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