Nifty Prediction trend still up however buying is dangerous. Now will look to short sell at appropriate resistance areas
Part of what we did
[09:08, 11/18/2020] Glen Drago: There have been many of you who have asked me over the past few days that is this a fresh bull market and my answer remains no this is not a fresh bull market and I say this because if we take a look at some of the good names or even the decent names most of these good-quality names are now trading at a pe multiple of 100 in some cases around 120 now historically we know that such hefty valuations no one ever has made money but the point is that historically such valuations have always and I say always corrected and I do not see this time being any different. The current rally is purely a liquidity-driven rally where all the positives have been priced in however none of the realities have been priced in realities like inflation being around 7% now for 4 months plus and this is not sustainable so if we see inflation around similar levels rbi will not be in a position to cut rates rather they will be forced to change stance from accommodative to neutral sooner than later and that will dent these hefty valuations.
Also, the on-ground data points that we follow are not showing any revival some may argue that autos are having good numbers but autos are only seeing traction due to pandemic and public transport being shut so there is no real revival as far as autos are concerned. The other leading indicators that we follow are not showing any pick up most of the companies will show a slow down in sales with the pent up demand being meet now so there is no incremental demand that’s going to come into the system for any further uptick or to put it mildly the so-called recovery will flatten out from Dec 1st onwards so with no earnings support hefty valuations and a scenario where interest rates are about to bottom and resume move towards 6.5 initially I don’t see rally sustaining or any investor missing out on investing, in any case, risk-reward and my historical back test show that regardless of situation buying at 100 pe does not and has not worked in the past nor will it this time.
Technically we see a top being formed and irregular wave B will end the implications is that we will see 9511 and then eventually 8200 and there is a possibility even if 7511 breaking and going to 7211 and I know that it’s difficult to digest what I am saying but like I always do I am telling you what I see. This is exactly the case what we did see at 8000 to 7511 when we said ghar bech ke buy karo inverse situation has come when and where to short sell is a different story altogether and we will do that on a reversal but just to answer most of the overnight questions this rally fundamentally is unsustainable based on all. My historical time-tested methods and using a combination of Elliott gann time cycle astro cycles we don’t see this rally sustaining.
Silver will do very well till 14th Aug 2021 post which equities will have a massive supportive cycle till Dec 2022 but for the time being, I am sitting on cash and moved to fds and would recommend everyone to do the same.
Glen Drago [09:09, 11/18/2020] Glen Drago: Silver we will buy around 55000 there is a possibility that bottom of silver and top of equities will more or less match and align so let’s see how that works
Gold will do well but I would prefer silver as cycle is more supportive for silver than gold but silver we will buy around 55000 only in panic not now [09:11, 11/18/2020] Glen Drago: Some of you asked me outlook on steel yes cycle is supportive but valuations too stretched won’t buy now will consider on 14th Aug 2021 and here I would like to play turn around stories rather than front like stocks if we choose to play them [09:11, 11/18/2020] Glen Drago: Coming back to nifty whenever we have to sell will update [09:28, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: Good morning [09:28, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: Wait for msg to sell [10:33, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: Upperside more or less is done minor variations may come but broadly upside will be done today [10:34, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: Don’t short untill we give go ahead [10:34, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: Wait on sidelines for now [10:34, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: Reiterate 9511 target [14:19, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: Break below 12730 game over on upside [14:34, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: Let confirmation come then we will see what and where to sell [14:34, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: I don’t want to preempt the top [14:34, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: Need confirmation [15:35, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: As we’re were expecting top should be done till 19th. We have signs of reversal however we don’t have any confirmation. We will start selling tomorrow onwards at any low risk points as potentially we have topped out [15:38, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: Would prefer to sell on confirmation rather than taking a punt. I don’t want to catch the top but be sure that move for 9511 has started. Those who want to sell and have the capacity to hold shorts you can sell as per your wishes however we will sell at low risk points post confirmation of top out [23:03, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: Nifty trend as of now still remains up however we have some good resistance zones available now and the first signs of trend change have come today. Though I would not prefer to sell before the trend reversal confirmation does come I would take chances at the red zones marked in the following chart. Overall we reiterate target of 9511 over the next few weeks and then we will review at 9511. https://www.tradingview.com/x/KnjglHmf/ [23:03, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: https://www.tradingview.com/x/uhpGO9ix/ [23:04, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: Bank nifty this was the chart that was shared and has turned lower just before touching our zone. https://www.tradingview.com/x/yQDMR6BT/ [23:06, 11/19/2020] Glen Drago: the green zone must break for trend reversal confirmation however if comes near red zones will take shorts with appropriate sl bank nifty longer term we see 14100 but the first target for bank nifty on the downside is 25000 post-break of green zone [09:04, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: Good morning [09:04, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: We will sell on confirmation [09:19, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: Nifty Sell at cmp SL 12874 spot levels mentioned [09:19, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: confirmation sold at 12850 [09:20, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: keep strict sl as told [09:26, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: Nifty book 50 percent at cmp and trail remaining qty 12874 spot level and hold [09:27, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: Hold Nifty remaining qty now with SL 12874 for lower positional targets [09:27, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: We will keep adding shorts at rise [09:28, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: Keep in mind we still don’t have confirmation [10:54, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: Hold Nifty remaining qty now with SL 12874 for lower positional targets as told [10:55, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: will keep updating as and when anything needs to be done
[12:02, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: Nifty book profits in remaining shorts done at 12850 spot level today morning [12:03, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: Confirmation no open positions in Nifty for now [12:03, 11/20/2020] Glen Drago: trend confirmation still not there to hold positional shorts
as usual, if you are only trading on the basis of this post please use your own risk management and then only trade please do not over trade and always keep your risk in check always.
Good trading to you.