Nifty Prediction Volatility will continue from a traders perspective but investors must get onto cash and hold cash to redeploy in the second half of the year.
Nifty has been all over the place in the past few days and yesterday the screen on SGX Nifty did look scary however we were clear that whatever is going on is a part of ongoing corrective wave and hence this is what we did today morning.
[9:13 AM, 6/12/2020] Glen Drago: Good morning [9:13 AM, 6/12/2020] Glen Drago: Will update as and when anything needs to be done [10:32 AM, 6/12/2020] Glen Drago: Nifty June Fut Buy above 9710 Fut level mentioned or Buy 18 June 9700 Call above 9710 June Fut level [10:34 AM, 6/12/2020] Glen Drago: Buy only if 9710 June Fut level is crossed [10:35 AM, 6/12/2020] Glen Drago: Trade active [10:36 AM, 6/12/2020] Glen Drago: 9625 SL June Fut level [11:24 AM, 6/12/2020] Glen Drago: Nifty June Fut Book 50% at cmp and trail remaining to 9625 and hold [11:36 AM, 6/12/2020] Glen Drago: We booked 50% at 9785 now hold remaining 50 percent long qty [11:36 AM, 6/12/2020] Glen Drago: Will update as and when anything needs to be done [11:37 AM, 6/12/2020] Glen Drago: Situation very dynamic please follow message and trade
Similarly we were expecting a pullback also for last few days so we had bought Nifty 10000 July Put at 291
[9:27 AM, 6/8/2020] Glen Drago: Don’t see nifty sustaining higher. Can come a bit more higher though [12:29 PM, 6/8/2020] Glen Drago: Nifty 30 July 10000 put buy
[2:03 PM, 6/10/2020] Glen Drago: Hold Nifty 30 July 10000 Put buy done at 291 as told [2:03 PM, 6/10/2020] Glen Drago: Will update as and when anything needs to be done
So from a traders perspective we did trade in and out and we will continue to do so from time to time as and when risk reward and trade set up is favourable but that does not hold true for investments because as I have said and I am sorry for being repetitive that bulk of the easy money that had to be made from 7500 onwards has been made and now there is no easy money remaining on the table in fact stock wise there could be some stocks that could have already started their fresh down moves it is possible in some specific stocks but the point is that since 7500 our targets of 10200 is done and now from an investment stand point the risk reward is not favourable to remain long so be very careful there as a combination of upcoming cycles + Valuations + technical factors are suggesting that upsides even if they come will not sustain. Having said that is it possible for the Nifty to test higher levels of 11000 or 10800 or 10500 sure it is possible till the current time cycle does not end however does that mean that prices will sustain higher I do not think so and based on a combination of analysis we see that prices will give us much better valuations to enter lower in the second half of the year. keep in mind that we need to buy on absolute high quality stocks on the lower side which have superb management and good growth visibility ( I know that many will say in such a market where is growth but trust me there are stocks where there is growth) anyways coming back to the point from a few weeks perspective we do not see investments long making any sense and wherever possible investors must cash out and hold cash to be deployed in panic in the second half of the year.
As usual if you are only trading on the basis of this post please use your own risk management and then only trade. Please do not over trade and always keep your risk in check before trading.