Nifty Share Price / Nifty Futures Today’s Analysis 12-4-18

Nifty Share Price / Nifty 50 / Nifty Futures today’s stats

Nifty spot LTP 10417.15 (+14.9, +0.14%) , Nifty April Futures LTP 10,416 , Nifty May Futures LTP 10445, Rollover Difference 28.4 points, Rollover percent 6.23% , Open Interest 340460 , OI Change 5.4%, PCR (Put Call Ratio) 1.25, Today’s Low-High 10428.15-10355.60. Top Gainer was Vedanta and Top Loser was BPCL

Nifty Share Price / Nifty Futures Todays Trend, Support, Resistance, Prediction, Analysis, Target and View is given below

Nifty Share Price / Nifty Futures today were seen consolidating between 10428-10355. As per our analysis, we do not see any one-sided movement in Nifty Futures in the near-term and we continue to expect a choppy trend in Nifty Futures to continue. The sentiment on the street is currently getting lot more bullish than it was a few trading days back and now there is talk in the market for Targets of 11,000 and some even are putting out a target of 14,000 for Nifty in the coming time and once again we are alerting do not get overly bullish for the near term as from a longer-term perspective there are lot of headwinds for price to continue moving higher.  The current rally in the stock prices / Nifty has been primarily based on bond yields cooling off from the recent highs after Reserve Bank of India lowered inflation forecast (Frankly we are not in line with what the Reserve Bank of India is guiding on inflation and we have explained that in this post and the previous post) and the global stock markets also have played a supportive role in the current rally but these factors will change very quickly and one of the reasons for that is the Indian Crude oil prices moving higher. Over the past 2 days after we covered our shorts in Crude Oil Futures, Crude oil prices have moved up very sharply and we expect Crude Oil prices to continue to move higher (Just have a look at the chart it is a classic textbook style higher top and bottom formation) and we expect a target of around 6000 for Crude oil in MCX over the next few months. Now if this happens then both the fiscal deficit and the Current account deficit will go out of hand so the implications of this will be that rates will move higher in India much faster than most people on the street are estimating them to move higher. We will not be surprised to see Reserve bank of India hiking rates as early as Sept of 2018 and most people will be surprised with that event. Also, what this rate hike cycle will do is that small and mid-cap companies and also large cap companies will have to take a hit on the bottom line due to higher cost of funds and all that recovery that people are talking about we frankly do not see that insight because the rates will keep rising and keep putting pressure on the bottom line of the companies so earnings growth will be under pressure for the coming near term at least.

Nifty Support in the near term is around 10300 and resistance is around 10499, currently based on our analysis we are predicting a choppy trend in the Nifty Futures / Nifty Share price and our view is to currently trade in and out and not take much of a directional trade for the near term. Longer term we remain bearish on the Indian Stock market as we do not see earnings growth or any pick taking place in the Indian economy but for the near term keep in mind that pullbacks will keep coming so overall the idea would be to reduce portfolio longs as we still see lot of froth present, though some of it has got corrected but there still is a long way to for both for Nifty and for the index components.

Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty Live Streaming Chart is provided below for reference

Good Trading To You!

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