Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 13th Nov
Nifty today opened higher did not sustain above 10620 spot levels and then started moving lower and reentered the trading range between 10620-10450. From a technical analysis stand point my near term trend, prediction, view remains that we are in a sideways zone and we don’t see any higher or lower targets or trending move unless 10620-10450 either side is broken, now in the event 10450 spot Nifty is broken then we could see some minor decline but even in that case I do not see any major sell off and I personally feel that any break below 10450 if it happens should be used to buy into portfolio where deep value is available so if and again I am saying if we do see 10450 breaking start buying stocks on the portfolio side where you see deep value especially rural sector names where there is deep value as these set of stocks will give excellent returns regardless of where the Nifty goes in the near to medium term simply because there is deep value present in them (Great management + low valuation + good earnings visibility + low or no debt = deep value) so wherever you see these present you should be looking to buy in the event 10450 breaks but we feel that if Nifty is stable above 10620 spot Nifty levels combination of short covering and fresh buying by the FII’s whom we feel will start deploying cash again into the Indian stock market as they will start changing their India weitage from sell to neutral will change the allocation patterns for India and that will take Nifty towards higher targets of 10850-11000 in the near term and we feel that this is more likely scenario in the near term.
Crude Oil today started a pullback back but we do not see that this pullback will move much higher. As per my prediction, view we see lower targets of 66 Brent crude oil for crude in the near term and on any rise crude oil will be a sell on rise. Please keep in mind that since we said that Brent crude oil has topped out at 86 in Oct Brent crude oil is down 20% in fact this has been the single largest continuous fall for Brent crude oil since 1984 so as we have said we do not expect a straight line fall and there will be pullbacks from time to time but these pullbacks will end up as lower tops in the larger time frames and crude oil will keep slipping. From a time cycle perspective I do not see crude oil now heading higher above 86 Brent at least till Aug of 2019 and it could very well be a case that crude oil will keep declining till June or May of 2019 so on any rise that comes at appropriate levels crude oil is a short sell as per my analysis. I will not be surprised to see brent crude oil around 51-52 in this time frame so please keep that in mind. This factor is a significant tail wind for Indian stock markets.
If you are only trading on the basis of this post please use your own risk management and trade. Please do not over trade and always keep your risk in check.
Good Trading To You!