Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 7th Sep
Nifty today was trading very volatile between the range of 11450-11570. Over the past few trading days Nifty has had a sharp fall and yesterday and today Nifty did give a good bounce back from lower levels so let us see how the overall picture looks like for now.
USDINR has been depreciating in line with our overall cycle predictions and we were one of the first to predict that USDINR is heading for 72 and now we have revised our upside targets for the USDINR pair but Nifty has been very resilient with respect to the depreciation in the INR and that was really surprising though we were waiting for trend reversal on the Nifty but Nifty moving higher daily and USDINR also depreciating daily was surprising. Anyways the trend in the USDINR pair will remain higher and we will continue to see the INR depreciating for the near term. There will be days or may be a few weeks where the INR fall will be controlled by the Reserve Bank of India using state run banks to intervene but I personally do not think that the minor interventions will stop the fall in the rupee and we will be seeing overall a falling trend to continue. Now yesterday Finance Minister blamed external factors for the fall in the rupee but we think that much of this fall in the rupee is on account of domestic problems like Current account deficit and fiscal deficit. Anyways in a nut shell INR will continue to depreciate and that will keep acting as a head wind for the markets on a macro front.
Now let us take a look at the Nifty all said and done despite all the headwinds, the weak earnings, the high valuations, the problems with fiscal deficit, current account deficit, crude oil and many other problems Nifty was moving higher and was not honoring any of the time tested parameters so it is better for the time being and I mean only from a near term perspective not to look at the overall parameters and just to watch out for the near term trend of the Nifty on a standalone basis so although there are many headwinds it will be prudent not to ignore the momentum because in the near term momentum will win and in the longer time frame the macros will win so for the time being follow the trend in the Nifty. As per our analysis we see that the near term trend in Nifty could have turned down as we have seen a faster retracement below the last rising segment so keep that in mind and do not get overly euphoric either. Take each day at a time and trade.
Good Trading To You!