Nifty trend / Nifty prediction 25th Feb 19
Nifty trend today was bullish and there were many traders who were seen covering shorts that they had initiated around 10600 levels. Regular readers of this website are well aware that we have been predicting that till the time the trading range does not break there will be no point in taking any directional trade however there were tactical trading opportunities and in fact we had taken tactical trading longs around 10600 and that trade did very well and our Nifty Trend analysis and Nifty prediction has been spot on.
The sentiment indicators today have become neutral so there is a set of traders in the market who are now bullish expecting a breakout above 11000 while there are still some traders and investors who feel that market is heading for a breakdown below 10600 so now we are in the middle of nowhere in terms of sentiment analysis.
Now keep in mind while today’s rally on the Nifty makes things look like we are in a major uptrend however keep in mind that when we see the Nifty on longer time frames it’s very clear that we are still well within the trading range and once again we are saying that till the time we don’t have a volume breakout above 11000 or below 10600 we don’t see anything changing in fact even beyond 11000 on the higher side we don’t see any significant upside that’s because around 11400 or thereabouts Nifty is fully valued from earnings perspective so even assuming Modi Govt comes back with absolute majority even in that case the higher limits will remain limited and we don’t see any major upside and at the same time since midcaps and small caps are falling much more than what the Nifty has if Nifty falls by another 1000 points from here so around 9800 Nifty levels the broader stock market will be at deep value levels so overall we don’t see much higher than 11400 nor do we see much lower than 9800 on the Nifty and hence in this calendar year in order to make money traders will have to look outside of the Nifty and also look at specific stocks where deep value has emerged so it will be prudent even to look at other asset classes where there is a low risk high probability trade available.
Good trading to you!