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SGX Nifty / Nifty Trend / Nifty Prediction / Stock Market Tips for 17th July 2015
SGX Nifty / Nifty Trend today was positive. Axis Bank, Yes Bank, Kotak Bank, BHEL, Tech Mahindra, BPCL, Tata Power, HDFC Bank, Idea and State Bank Of India were in the green today while NMDC, Vedanta, Ultratech Cements, Bank of Baroda, Ambuja Cements, TCS, Wipro, Hero Motors, GAIL and ACC were in the red today. Nifty has confirmed inversion and Nifty will top out anytime around current levels. Details of levels have been given to clients via message. From 4th March 2015 we have clearly said at 9120 that our down side targets are 8450-8400, Nifty breached the low and made a short term bottom at 8268 (you may recall we had clearly said Buy around 8300 for targets of 8650-8750.) At 8650 we once again said Nifty down side target is 7961 and that also got achieved. At 7991 we said pullback is expected towards 8250-8300. Now from downside the only different thing that has happened is wave has got split in double combination that is why time has been taken to reach the upper end price band and also Nifty has very clearly told us that Inversion is occurring meaning both price and time will be getting extended on the lower side. On 2nd July 2015 we have discussed the inversion possibilities and that has played out. Now this pullback is completing and down cycle which started from 4th March 2015 will resume anytime. We do not expect a move towards 9200-9500 as general public are expecting (if this had to happen Nifty should have already crossed 8900 by now the upside rally can not be so slow if that possibility had to take place). We maintain our revised lower targets and maintain use this pullback to exit longs. On trailing valuation front we have reached the same valuation as that as 9120. Some analyst are recommending that Jupiter has changed signs to leo and that’s why it will support the Stock Markets / Nifty to move higher I totally agree with this view but from a medium term (post Aug 15th / Sept 2015 ) not from a short term perspective. Whenever there is a rally due to Jupiter moving signs it is always preceded with a panic bottom (if a top occurs around Jupiter changing signs means it not a bullish sign for at least the first 30-40 calendar days from the date of change of zodiac sign) As a rule down move begins within 5 trading days from the date of change of position. Yesterday 15th July 2015 Jupiter changed signs so take 5 trading days from 15th July 2015. Bad Q1 numbers, Bad Harvesting Season, Fed clearly saying that we will be increasing rates in second half of 2015 and extremely high valuations all these factors are clearly not supportive to equity rally. If we consider the analysis from Elliot wave perspective then pullback from 7941 to 8561 has taken more than double the amount of time and hence by rule upside won’t be possible beyond reversal range given.
Sugar Sector Update
Reiterate Buy and Hold Sugar Sector. Bajaj Hindustan, Renuka Sugar and EID Parry will give 5 X returns over next 3 years till 2019. Sugar sector in India will be decontrolled by Dec 2016. As of now we are at the bottom of the cycle and from here on a massive bull market will begin in sugar stocks and raw sugar. Most agro commodities will start running up from the second half of this year that includes Cotton, Coffee and Soybean.
Crude Oil Update
Nymex Crude Oil support as mentioned is at 46/48 $/BBL and we do not see that breaking till early part of next year. Upper side we do not see Crude Oil going significantly beyond 72 and overall range will be between 48-72.
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