LTP 8,576.00 -128.00 -1.49% High 8,710.00 Low 8,546.50
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SGX Nifty 17th June 2016
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS MY OVERALL VIEW ON THE NIFTY AND THAT DOES NOT MEAN PRECISE ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THIS POST. IF YOU ARE TRADING ONLY ON THE BASIS OF THIS POST PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE RISK MANAGEMENT AND THEN ONLY TRADE.
SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures continued its time pass as we have said. Nifty overall as per our analysis will remain in the range bound trading mode for a few more trading days and post that happens we will see a trending move. Please keep in mind that although our overall Nifty view for the next 2-3 months is negative we will trade in and out as per opportunity so if we do see any pullback we will exit and then reenter shorts also or we may even buy if we get a small stop loss for intraday day and then reenter shorts towards end of trade. We may do this kind of trades in order to manage our positions. Yesterday towards the last part of trading day there was a lot of euphoria but we motioned to our clients to remain short as told and we did some tactical trades also.
Nifty currently is in a range of 7900-8300 and we do not see any significant upsides. Does that mean we can not see a little higher during intraday trade? Sure we can but do we see that sustaining no we do not. Our view is valid for the next 2-3 months and if you are trading only on the basis of this post then please use appropriate risk management systems and trade. We are sharing our view we may be wrong also. I am human not God. Please do not over trade under any circumstances. Trading is a process not a event.
As per our Nifty Prediction / Nifty View our overall astro cycles are indicating that Nifty will not advance much ahead from here (here means current highs made) and a sharp fall is coming (though it may take a few more trading days and then start to play catch up with the global indices which have broken down) We keep taking the global context into picture because this rally at the end of the day has been a global rally not a local rally alone and Indian stock markets have not rallied in isolation alone all global markets have rallied together. In fact the most under owned and beaten down markets like Russia and Brazil have been great out performers in this global rally.
If we see Global macro problems then all the issues will start coming back to front headline news from 29th June 2016 once that happens we do see many issues coming back to the fore front. Indian macros as said before also have been deteriorating and in such a scenario we do not see much of the investments in India doing very well. We come back to the wave characteristics to analyze better if this was indeed a tezi cycle then in that case we would not have seen such slow speed on the upside. Nifty whenever has rallied has just rallied fast for the first 4 days of the rally and then a slow consolidation phase has been in place. Like for e.g. 6825-7483 in 4 trading days and then slow grinding move. 7405-7728 in 4 trading days and then again a slow move. All the moves have effectively been for 4-5 trading days and then there has been a slow move. As per our analysis this is not a real tezi rather just a major pullback which we were predicting from lower side levels. Now that has been done and before this tezi cycle resumes we see another fall which will look like a mandi cycle but when people will realize that it will be much too late. Many people keep calling me and asking me what news flow will trigger that fall? and we keep saying that we do not know and we do not bother. If we first understand that news is a trailing indicator not a leading one then much of the problem is solved. Events and news flow may just create pullbacks but they will never alter the main trend unless a war is declared or a natural calamity takes place.
Astro cycles are indicating that some more time pass can take place around these levels. When we say time pass means no real move will take place when look at price from a larger time frame or in simple words we see range bound move taking place with minor variations so overall price will remain range bound and moves during day will look like tezi or mandi cycle but overall price will remain stagnant or give minor false breakout or breakdowns. The overall risk reward ratio looking at various macro and international situation along with valuations in the Indian stock market do not inspire confidence to my mind to deploy fresh cash at these levels. It will be much more safer to make money in fixed income rather than investing fresh capital in Indian or World stock market with the exception of agri commodity stocks. We see a great time for agri commodities.
Good Trading To You!