LTP 8,576.00 -128.00 -1.49% High 8,710.00 Low 8,546.50
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SGX Nifty 18th April 2016
SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures today continued its final leg of bullish move started form 6825 on 29th Feb 2016. Regular readers and clients of this website would recall that way back in Feb 2016 we had clearly mentioned that Rahu (North Node) would be controlling this rally and the job of Rahu (North Node) will be to keep playing a master deception game till the time Jupiter does not reduce its support. Jupiter represents expansion, exaggeration so what theme should we expect? It is expansive deception to continue and this time also will be no different. So let us look at the overall picture now one by one.
First let us look at the sentiment indicators since Rahu (North node) is controlling this rally sentiment is of extreme importance. As of today the very same people who were totally short at 7500 now are talking about 8100-8250 range (if we see 99 percent plus people are now talking about 8150-8250 some even 8300) this is a clear sign looking at the overall geocosmic situation that bullish move is nearing the end as now people will talk of much more upsides and the same people were very bearish just a few days back (Just look at any news channel and now all of them are talking about bullish move etc just a few days back all of them were talking about how bad earnings picture is, how big a problem Indian economy is and you name it and they all were just talking absolutely negative ). At that juncture they were saying economy is the same, no change in earnings etc all that talk has been forgotten by them and now all of them will justify 8000+ levels. It is a matter of record that in our Sunday post we had clearly mentioned this “ we could see a pullback back again to 7777-7850 range and then we could again see a fall” and this was the reason why we had covered our shorts built at 7750 area since we were seeing that this bullish move is possible hence we had got out of shorts but by no means that implies that we are headed significantly higher from here. Rahu is about to play a massive deception move again and hence extreme caution is suggested for long traders. To add to that the current picture Mars retrogrades on Sunday 17th April 2016 and on the very next day 18th April 2016 Pluto also retrogrades this is followed by Venus trine Saturn and then Venus squares Pluto. These astro indicators are powerful trend change indicators (most of them level 1 trend change indicators within a primary cycle in an orbit of 5 trading days and that too is indicating a change of trend so if the move is up for now it will change it to down and that is what we see on our larger wave counts. Further if we look at even some of my clients some of the new ones are afraid that Nifty will zoom higher from here, this in spite of making consistent money since the time they have joined us (the last Stop loss that was triggered for us was 45 point stop loss on Feb 29th 2016 after which no SL has been hit, each and every trade has made massive money yet they are afraid is a sign that retail thinks markets are headed higher). Also we have developed a new addition to this sentiment indicator system and that is percentage of Institutions calling me and also percentage of retail / HNI customers calling me. If I just take into account the first part of today till 3 PM I have crossed over 200 calls from various segments of people all just asking me what to buy and at 7150 when we were advising the very same institutions and HNI’s to buy they were saying “Kyaa sir kya Mazak kar rahe ho” “Sir how Nifty will come higher, kya news ayega?” etc etc all the very same people are now extremely bullish which means Nifty Futures is nearing a top. Sure our as per our Nifty Prediction / Indian Stock Market analysis we have predicted 8000+ levels and they will come but not directly now. (At least we do not see that happening for now)
If we look at the Q4 results that are about to be announced then we see that the results are going to be under or much below expectation baring a few stocks like reliance (we see the company doing well in the time to come, astro cycle for Reliance Industries is moving towards positive and in the coming time will do very well). Banking sector will have another bad Q4 numbers and we don’t see that likely to change in the near term. Cement companies may show some strength but the overall universe of results will be significantly below par there by triggering a massive earnings downgrade going forward. Also if we look at the trailing PE (we always believe that trailing PE is a much better barometer of the real earnings growth picture and that is showing signs of being expensive so if we look at the earnings picture we do not see that will be helping the Indian Stock markets in the near term) Hence the results season will keep the brakes on the Nifty Futures and hence we do not see earnings acting as a upside trigger in fact we could see the other way round in simple words downgrades could force the Nifty Futures lower rather than higher.
Overall our view remains the same. On rise we have got out of our long positions that we had built from 7150 and now we are short and on rise at appropriate points we will add more short selling positions. (We did initially sell around 7750 around end of March and then covered again around 7550 spot Nifty levels mentioned) We are very clear for now it does not make any sense to buy and hold positions as the rally that started on 29th Feb 2016 is nearly done or about to just be done shortly (the first leg of the rally) and using all our combined analysis we see Nifty Futures moving lower from here. Please once again understand that as per our Nifty Prediction / Nifty Charts analysis we do not see a run much higher from here and we were expecting this pullback within a pullback (some people may dispute that but does not matter). The ideal trade as per our analysis should be to exit longs now and short sell Nifty Futures or better still sell Nifty May Calls (that is what we have recommended to our clients to manage risk looking at the long weekend coming up we feel that that offers much more safer way to play the short / down side move from here). Reiterate it does not make sense to buy here rather makes absolute sense to short sell May call options. (What to sell, where to sell, how much to sell all details have been given to our clients. If you are only trading on the basis of this post then please use appropriate risk management and then only trade). Use all dips to buy and hold MSL (500266), Bajaj Hindustan, EID Parry, Renuka Sugar, NMDC, Kesoram, Tata Coffee. Our new multi bagger that we have identified is not mentioned here and we see that moving up min 3 X from current prices in the next 18 months.
SGX Nifty 18th April 2016 (Friday Update)
As of now most of you are worried and wondering about Nifty move for now looking at the SGX Nifty but if we actually see this is what we were expecting and we once again reiterate our position. These are best prices to sell not to buy we see a significant downside correction starting anytime since there are powerful astro combinations coming up in the next few days and that has very high probability for changing the trend (most of the astro indicators are level 1 indicators ). Also if we see our current trade we made aprox 250 points in the first round of selling from 7750 onwards and then covered around 7550. If we take the current move then our average of selling three parts works out to 7740 aprox and if we just add the avg of the current trade which in reality is nothing but a continuation of the previous trade (we just covered and now are reentering shorts) so take 250/3= 83 points. current avg for three parts is 7740+83= 7823 for three parts and we will be selling another part on Monday. There by taking the average higher. As most of our clients are aware that during setting up of a positional trade there is volatility since the positional trade is not for 100-200 points it is for much more than that so minor volatility has to be digested and that is the reality. If you can not digest the volatility then I suggest you must move to fixed income and trading is not for you. (I am sorry to be blunt. I have to tell you the truth whether you like it or not. If you want to make money like a pro please start behaving and trading like a pro. If you get worried about Nifty on a holiday following a impeccable track record like ours then that surely is a novice behavior and that over time will not help you make any money).
I think most people have forgotten what we have written in the last few months and it is important for me to remind you hence I am enclosing the links here and please read them carefully. (we had already predicted the current situation well in advance. What is happening now is what we have openly written on our website much before so please take the time out and read before posting further questions)
This is what we had said in our 1st March 2016 update
“In this round of tezi itself we should see 8200+ so keep that in mind that from now on mandi will not take place” (please keep in mind that 8200 TGT is intact all we said is a corrective move then back up towards the first round TGT)
This is what we had said in our 22nd March Update
“Also I must candidly accept that as per our wave counts we should have seen Nifty blasting above 7600 and that has not happened so although the trend remains up we could see some pullback going forward and during that pullback we will see where and when to reenter the long positions once again.”
Looking at all these calculation it should not be of any worry to any person who is following my trades.
Good Trading To You!