Forex Rates- USDINR
Forex Rates- USDINR made a high of 66.50 few days back and now has been consolidating between 65.88-66.50. As per our Forex Rates analysis of USDINR we are expecting USDINR now to head towards 63.50-63 range. Our estimated time frame for this target of 63-63.50 is approximately 25-30 days and by 3rd week of Dec 2015 . So in short if importers are holding positions then we will be loking to hedge positions below 63.50 and as of right now importers can run open positions as we do not see there is any significant upside remaining in USDINR.
Many traders are trying to find one on one correlation with dollar index and Indian Rupee and we have been cealrly mentioning that there is no one on one correlation. Although there is a connect but it is not a one on one correlation so Indian rupee prices vs the US dollar. On rise we should be selling . short selling the dollar till the time 63.50 is not breached on the downside. Once 63.50 is breached we then will review our positions and stance. Longer term we do see Indian Rupee depreciating towards 70-72 and once 63.50 is taken out we will have to be extremely alert and look at what kind of divergences we are getting on price charts.
In short Trade in USDINR is sell on rise as of now the consolidation is going on and once USDINR breaks / breaches 63.80 spot prices mentioned we see fast fall towards our target zone of 63.50-63. The entire importers fraternity is expecting and talking about Indian rupee touching 60-61 shortly and do not subscribe to that view. There are far too many head winds for Indian rupee as of now, both macro headwinds and micro headwinds. We will keep updating regularly on USDINR.
Good Trading To You!