Share Market News 30th Nov 2015
On Monday 30th Nov 2015 second quarter GDP data will be released. Although we never follow much of this macro data as per our reliable sources GDP for Q2FY16 will come in at 7.5 percent against 7 percent in Q1. There is a 0.5 percent increase in Q2 vs Q1. Growth is expected to come in from IT services, Agricultural is expected to remain flat on account of poor monsoon.
Reserve Bank of India will announce its bi-monthly monetary policy review on Tuesday 1st Dec 2015 and we expect no change in policy as retail inflation has come in higher than the comfort zone of RBI and RBI has said it will now wait to see if Banks pass on the rate cuts to the consumers. Yesterday on 27th Nov 2015 Reserve Bank of India Governor meet the FM and discussed current macroeconomic conditions and the global economic scenario in the wake of a likely US Fed rate in Dec 2015. Some tweaking in liquidity could be seen by OMO window. That could act as a positive news trigger for the Indian Stock Markets.
The most important data point this week for Global Stock Markets and Indian Stock Markets will be on 4th Dec 2015 when US November jobs report will be released. The data will be a decider for FED to raise rates or not to raise rates. As per astro cycle analysis at the time of jobs report as per western astrology moon is in virgo near to Jupiter and Rahu (Moons north node) Virgo is the ruler of Jobs, Jupiter is the sign of expansion so combination of both will be a good jobs data. We are expecting FED to hike by 0.125 Bps Rate hike and then the subsequent rate hikes will be gradual. As per our understanding there is going to be a continuous expansion in jobs till March of 2017 but after that the world equity markets will go through a vertical collapse and at the same time inflation will bottom and we are going to see a significant uptick in inflation world vide and within that we will see an increase in food prices massive increase in agro commodities. So our overweight for next 24 months should be agro commodities stocks or we may even directly take exposure to agro commodities via comex.
Crude seems to have bottomed out and if it continues to hold 38 for 45 trading days or till Jan 2016 then we will see 86 means in other words India’s macro picture is going to go for a toss. People will blame the Govt for not doing enough no Government ever in the history of mankind has been able to control the economy and this time also Govt will not be able to control the economy. There are up cycles and down cycles. Economy will always move as per cycles. Yes Govt may act as a catalyst to expand the growth or they may act as deterrents to growth. They will never be able to control the economy if they would have been able to control the economy then crashes like 2008, 1987,1961,1949 would never would have happened.
Good Trading To You!