USDINR / Forex Rates 17th Nov 2015

USDINR / Forex Rates

USDINR Minor Trend is down. USDINR Major Trend is also down. Today intraday USDINR did go below 65 once again and as per our USDINR / Forex Rates Analysis we do not see any significant upside in USDINR for now and we see INR gaining value against US dollar for now. Traders may recall we were very categorically saying last month that INR has good support around 64.30-64.50 and we see INR towards 65.70/66. INR did go little higher than expected but now the pullback has ended and we do not see higher INR value sustaining now. Due to INR appreciation and lower Gold rates internationally in dollar terms we see Gold also being soft and breaching 24000 INR shortly. Silver will also breach 31500 and we are expecting 30000-31000 to be final bottom in Silver as there are good chances of inter market divergence in precious metals. Overall we expect USDINR to head for a target of 63.50-63 this will be the final target for this year after which longer term weakness in INR / Rupee will resume and take INR towards 72/70. We expect INR to touch 63.50-63 (USDSINR Spot Rates mentioned). Fundamentally speaking lower import bill thanks to Crude Oil falling almost now to 40 $/ BBL, Soft Gold imports are seen helping the INR in the short term but after 15th Dec 2015 astro cycle for INR changes and then we do not see any support for INR.

We Expect 63.50-63 to be achieved by 15th Dec 2015 (This will be the bottom for sometime after which we see a very sharp decline in the INR) hence importers must hedge positions at lower levels between 63/63.50 for longer term contracts beyond 15th Dec 2015. As of now our advice to our importer clients is that we do not see any need for imports to be hedged at least for now but once we begin nearing 63/63.50 the world will begin talking about 61-60 and we don’t see that coming hence towards 63/63.50 USDINR spot rates mentioned Importers must begin hedging for both short term and longer term. It will not pay to second guess at that time as the turn from 63.50/63 will be very fast and most people will not get ample time to react to the fast move that will begin from lower side hence we are updating well in advance.

Good Trading To You!